Terror groups have rebounded after past leadership losses, so Lake Chad Basin security forces cannot afford complacency.
Over the past three months, security forces from the Lake Chad Basin countries – Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon – have announced the arrest or neutralisation of key figures in Boko Haram factions. Although these gains will weaken the terrorist groups, they have shown an ability to outlast their leaders and reinvent themselves. Security forces must therefore remain vigilant and proactive.
In August, Chadian police announced the arrest in the capital N’Djamena of Muslim Yusuf, son of Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf. Muslim’s older brother Habib Yusuf, also known as Abu Musab al-Barnawi, is the current leader of the Boko Haram faction Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).
In the same month, the Nigerian army announced the neutralisation of Bakura Doro, head of the other Boko Haram faction, Jama’atu Ahlus-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal Jihad (JAS). Also in August, Nigerian security services arrested Mahmud Muhammad Usman and Mahmud Al-Nigeri – the two leaders of Ansaru, a JAS splinter group. Along with these actions against group leaders, dozens of Boko Haram fighters have been killed in military operations across the region.
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The security forces are clearly able to target leaders – a tactic that will cripple the groups until replacements are found. In the interim, disorder and more demobilisation of combatants and non-fighting Boko Haram affiliates is likely, as happened when JAS leader Abubakar Shekau was killed in 2021.
Another advantage is that the arrested leaders could provide useful strategic intelligence in the ongoing fight against violent extremism.
Gains have also been made in other areas. Military operations such as Nalewa Dole (in Niger) and Hadin Kai (in Nigeria) are yielding results. In Nigeria, increased air strikes and greater responsiveness have considerably slowed down ISWAP’s Camp Holocaust campaign. Cameroon’s Rapid Intervention Battalion repelled several attacks as part of the campaign, such as that on a military camp in Fima (in Fotokol), which neutralised more than a dozen ISWAP fighters.
To date, ISWAP has not acknowledged Muslim’s arrest and JAS has denied Bakura Doro’s death. No other independent source has confirmed his death, and to date, no new leader has emerged. Even if true, history shows that removing leaders does not necessarily lead to the dissolution of affected groups. When Shekau died, JAS was expected to fall apart, but Bakura Doro quickly emerged as its new leader.
Despite JAS’ human and material losses and the military pressure exerted by rival ISWAP on its positions, Bakura Doro managed to gradually loosen ISWAP’s stranglehold and rebuild his faction’s strike force. Three years since Shekau’s death, JAS has reconstituted itself as a significant threat.
The challenge now facing the region’s armies is to capitalise on recent security gains in order to really cripple the factions.
In the case of Chad, Muslim seems to have been arrested by chance. He infiltrated the country with a small group, conducting criminal activities including armed robberies and kidnappings for ransom to raise funds for ISWAP. His presence demonstrates the group’s continued attempt to establish sleeper cells and operations in N’Djamena.
Muslim was arrested with four other people, including one from the Chadian security forces, according to authorities. Other ISWAP members are likely still at large in the city.
Of all the Lake Chad Basin capitals, N’Djamena is closest to the conflict’s epicentre. Together with Maiduguri, capital of Nigeria’s Borno State, it was attacked at least twice by Boko Haram in 2015. The current situation mirrors those dynamics, which saw the group set up a cell to coordinate the logistics for the June 2015 attacks.
The arrest of Yusuf and his accomplices will certainly prevent a repeat of the events of 2015, but vigilance remains essential. This is especially true given that, according to a 1 October Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) statement, ISWAP is conducting surveillance operations around prisons and detention centres in N’Djamena with a view to freeing Muslim from jail.
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In response to these losses, both Boko Haram factions will probably initiate retaliatory strikes to show their continued capacity to cause harm. ISWAP may choose to directly threaten N’Djamena. And if Bakura Doro has indeed been killed, the new JAS leader is expected to initiate dramatic actions to make his mark. This will further strain armies and communities in the Lake Chad Basin.
Security force pressure in the four countries should not ease up. Together with the MNJTF, they must maintain the upper hand and enhance intelligence gathering to stay ahead of the Boko Haram factions. This includes capitalising on the presence of high-profile prisoners like Muslim and his accomplices, who could provide valuable intelligence.
Remadji Hoinathy, Senior Researcher, Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin, ISS
Read the original article on ISS.
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