Undermining effect of chronic violence is especially strong in countries with robust liberal institutions and lower development.
Abstract
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts.
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This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts.
These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography.
The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
Souleymane Yameogo Souleymane Yameogo is a research associate in democratic politics at the University of Glasgow.
Anja Neundorf Anja Neundorf is a professor of politics and research methods in the School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow.
Read the original article on Afrobarometer.
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