COP30 negotiator Malang Sambou Manneh believes the method of countering growth in fossil fuel development lies in technology. Showcasing alternatives that work provides the opportunity for the global South to take the lead and present best practices in renewables.
NAIROBI, Oct 14 2025 (IPS) – The Gambia’s lead negotiator on mitigation believes that COP30 presents a unique opportunity to rebalance global climate leadership.
“This COP cannot be shrouded in vagueness. Too much is now at stake,” Malang Sambou Manneh says in an interview with IPS ahead of the climate negotiations. He identified a wide range of issues that are expected to define COP30 climate talks.
The global community will shortly descend on the Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest intact forest, home to more than 24 million people in Brazil alone, including hundreds of thousands of Indigenous Peoples. Here, delegates will come face-to-face with the realities of climate change and see what is at stake.
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COP30, the UN’s annual climate conference, or the Conference of Parties, will take place from November 10-21, 2025 in the Amazonian city of Belém, Brazil and promises to be people-centered and inclusive. But with fragmented and fragile geopolitics, negotiations for the best climate deal will not be easy.
Sambou, a lead climate negotiator who has attended all COPs, says a unified global South is up to the task.
He particularly stressed the need for an unwavering “focus on mitigation or actions to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions.” Stating that the Mitigation Work Programme is critical, as it is a process established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at COP26 to urgently scale up the ambition and implementation of efforts to mitigate climate change globally.
Sambou spoke about how COP30 differs from previous conferences, expectations from the global South, fossils fuels and climate financing, stressing that “as it was in Azerbaijan for COP29, Belem will be a ‘finance COP’ because climate financing is still the major hurdle. Negotiations will be tough, but I foresee a better outcome this time round.”
The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T is expected to be released soon, outlining a framework by the COP 29 and COP 30 Presidencies for scaling climate finance for developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
Unlike previous conferences, COP30 focuses on closing the ambition gap identified by the Global Stocktake, a periodic review that enables countries and other stakeholders, such as the private sector, to take inventory to assess the world’s collective progress in meeting its climate goals.
The first stocktake was completed at COP28 in 2023, revealing that current efforts are insufficient and the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement. But while the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, set off on a high singular note when it entered into force in November 2016, that unity is today far from guaranteed.
Unlocking high-impact and sustainable climate action opportunities amidst geopolitical turbulence was always going to be difficult. Not only did President Donald Trump pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement, but he is now reenergized against climate programs and robustly in support of fossil fuels–and there are those who are listening to his message.
Sambou says while this stance “could impact the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, many more countries are in favor of renewable energy than against.”
“But energy issues are complex because fossil fuels have been a way of life for centuries, and developed countries leveraged fossil fuels to accelerate development. And then, developing countries also started discovering their oil and gas, but they are not to touch it to accelerate their own development and must instead shift to renewables. It is a complex situation.”
Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, famously described oil as a “gift from God” at COP29 to defend his country’s reliance on fossil fuels despite climate change concerns. This statement highlights the complexity of the situation, especially since it came only a year after the landmark COP28 hard-won UAE Consensus included the first explicit reference to “transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems” in a COP agreement.
As a negotiator, Sambou says he is very much alive to these dynamics but advises that the global community “will not successfully counter fossil fuels by saying they are bad and harmful; we should do so through technology. By showcasing alternatives that work. This is an opportunity for the global South to take the lead and present best practices in renewables.”
And it seems there is evidence for his optimism. A recent report shows the uptake of renewables overtaking coal generation for the first time on record in the first half of 2025 and solar and wind outpacing the growth in demand.
This time around, the global south has its work cut out, as it will be expected to step up and provide much-needed leadership as Western leaders retreat to address pressing problems at home, defined by escalating economic crises, immigration issues, conflict, and social unrest.
It is in the developing world’s leadership that Sambou sees the opportunities–especially as scientific evidence mounts on the impacts of the climate crisis.
The World Meteorological Organization projects a continuation of record-high global temperatures, increasing climate risks and potentially marking the first five-year period, 2025-2029.
Sambou says all is not lost in light of the new and ambitious national climate action plans or the Nationally Determined Contributions.
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This past September marked the deadline for a new set of these contributions, which will guide the COP30 talks. Every five years, the signatory governments to the Paris Agreement are requested to submit new national climate plans detailing more ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction and adaptation goals.
“Ambition has never been a problem; it is the lack of implementation that remains a most pressing issue. Action plans cannot be implemented without financing. This is why the ongoing political fragmentation is concerning, for if there was ever a time to stand unified, it is now. The survival of humanity depends on it,” he emphasizes.
“Rather than just setting new goals in Belém, this time around, we are better off pushing for a few scalable solutions, commitments that we can firmly hold ourselves accountable to, than 200 pages of outcomes that will never properly translate into climate action.”
Despite many competing challenges and a step forward, two steps backwards here and there, from the heart of the Amazon rainforest, COP30’s emphasis on the critical role of tropical forests and nature-based solutions is expected to significantly drive action for environmental and economic growth.
Note: This interview is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.
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From 1970 until 2000, the costs of disaster averaged $70-$80 billion. Those mainly preventable costs doubled this century to average $180-$200 billion annually, according to a recent report published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).
Most of the exorbitant costs of disaster are preventable with proper funding and planning –one of the main messages for this year’s International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, themed Fund Resilience, Not Disasters, observed on Monday.
“Every dollar invested in resilience saves many more in avoided losses and protects the dignity of those most at risk. The choice is ours. We can continue to fund disaster response or we can invest in resilience,” said Amy Pope, chief of the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
In 2024 alone, nearly 46 million people were displaced by disasters, the highest number ever recorded, but disaster risk reduction efforts remain severely underfunded, according to the IOM.
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Preventable disaster costs
“As the climate crisis accelerates, disasters are multiplying and amplifying – devastating lives and livelihoods, erasing decades of development gains in an instant,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message to mark the Day.
“The cost to the global economy is staggering: an estimated $2 trillion every year, when indirect costs are taken into account.”
Indirect costs include the wider social and ecosystem losses that come as a result of natural catastrophes. Earthquakes, floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves made up 95 per cent of direct costs in the past two decades, according to the report.
“Wildfires in Europe and the Americas, and devastating earthquakes in Myanmar and Afghanistan prove that no country is immune, but the heaviest toll falls on communities already struggling with conflict, poverty, and hunger,” said Ms. Pope.
Different natural catastrophes affect different regions in the world. In South Sudan, annual floods can submerge houses, farmland and schools, forcing people to flee their homes and increasing food insecurity.
As a disaster prevention measure, dykes have been constructed in South Sudan with the support of the IOM, protecting farmland and restoring livelihoods.
Promoting disaster reduction
The International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction was established in 1989 to foster a global culture of risk-awareness and celebrate how communities around the world are reducing their exposure to disasters.
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“The impact of disasters depends in large part on the choices we make, how strong our infrastructure is, how much we invest in prevention, and how well we protect the most vulnerable,” said Ms. Pope.
With planning and funding, the negative impacts of disasters can be reduced. Accordingly, this year’s Day call is for an increase in disaster risk funding and for the development of risk-adapted and resilient private investment.
Mr. Guterres stressed that for every decision they make, the public and private sectors must take risk into account to minimise exposure and vulnerability to hazards.
“On this Day, let’s commit to meet surging risk with a surge in funds, and build a safer and more equitable future for all,” he said.
Read the original article on UN News.
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Over the past two decades, economic strength, trade flows, technological leadership and even consumer demand have been moving steadily from west to east. This transformation is redrawing economic maps. It is also raising urgent questions about co-operation, competition and inclusion in a multipolar world. Lecturer in economics and finance Arno van Niekerk answers questions about these issues, which he explores in a new book, West to East: A New Global Economy in the Making?
What indicates a shift from west to east?
Brics countries, largely driven by China and India, overtook the G7 countries in their share of global GDP in 2018. As Figure 1 shows, the Brics contribution has grown from 32.33% of global GDP to 35.43% in 2024 (after being at 21.37% in 2000).
Figure 1
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The G7’s share decreased to 29.64%, from 43.28% in 2000.
This marks a historic turning point. Economic leadership that was long concentrated in the west has decisively shifted towards emerging economies.
Another strong indicator of the shift is the change in global shares of trade of the G7 and Brics countries. This is particularly true of exports. Data shows that Brics+ (11 countries, including new members) captured 28% of world exports in 2024, closing in on the G7’s 32%.
The rebalancing of global trade dynamics has wide-ranging consequences for international business. It means, especially in the case of China and India, that these economies are doing more than expanding in scale. They are also integrating effectively into global value chains, improving productivity and raising living standards.
As shown in Figure 2, the share of global merchandise exports of the G7 countries fell from 45.1% in 2000 to 28.9% in 2023. For their part, the Brics+ share rose from 10.7% (2000) to 23.3% (2023).
Figure 2
There are other indicators too:
What does this shift tell us about economic co-operation?
Countries in both the east and the west need to make more intentional efforts. This is necessary, firstly, to address the growing geoeconomic tension. And secondly to move the world towards a shared vision for sustainable economic progress that benefits all countries.
Such co-operation needs to go beyond traditional trade and investment agreements. It should be deliberately structured to reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience and embed sustainability.
I identify five main areas for co-operative initiatives.
Co-ordinated policy frameworks: tax co-operation in the form of global minimum corporate taxes to ensure fair revenue for social investment. Harmonise labour and social protections through common standards to prevent exploitation. Align sustainable development by embedding the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement targets and human rights principles into trade and financial agreements.
Inclusive trade and investment: fair trade agreements to ensure that market access benefits small producers, women and marginalised communities. Establish regional value chains that support developing countries in upgrading within global value chains – so that they don’t just supply raw materials. Design co-operative frameworks for technology transfer, especially for sharing green and digital technologies at affordable costs.
Financial co-operation: innovative financing mechanisms, such as green and social bonds, blended finance and climate funds need to be made accessible to low-income countries. Implement co-operative mechanisms for debt relief and restructuring. This will help address unsustainable debt that crowds out social spending. Forge public-private partnerships for inclusion to co-finance social infrastructure. This includes education, health and digital access.
Knowledge and capacity building: joint research platforms are required to enable more collaborative work on climate adaptation, food security and inclusive digitalisation. South-south and triangular co-operation should be increased to share experiences and best practices among developing nations with support from multilateral institutions. Managed labour mobility schemes through skills partnerships will benefit both sending and receiving countries.
Governance and multilateral reform: reforming global institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization is essential to give developing economies stronger voices in these institutions.
What should African countries be doing?
China, India and other leading eastern countries have proven themselves formidable rivals to the west – economically, militarily and in global governance. Africa occupies a central position. It has the opportunity to become a key player in shaping the future of the global economy.
A number of recommendations should serve as priority areas – particularly over the next decade.
The first would include building a digital backbone, and enhancing technology and AI capabilities. These have become core drivers of competitiveness. Without infrastructure and skills, countries are relegated to raw-material suppliers.
Countries need:
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Secondly, governments should continue to secure investment in digital infrastructure, such as fibre optics, 5G networks and data centres. They could potentially use China’s Digital Silk Road, which promotes affordable tech alternatives.
Secondly, South Africa and other African countries need to prioritise economic inclusion and sustainable development to fast-track broad-based inclusive economic development. This should be the core driver of their development strategy.
Thirdly, African governments must strategically navigate geopolitical shifts and alliances. They are key spheres of influence in the digital competition between the US and China, and ought to use this position to their benefit. To do this, Africna governments should:
Arno J. van Niekerk, Senior lecturer in Economics, University of the Free State
This article is republished from The Conversation Africa under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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