Tobacco remains a cornerstone of many African economies, yet several countries in the region continue to grapple with major public health threats linked to tobacco use. This has created a persistent conflict between economic dependence on tobacco and the urgent need to protect public health.
Zimbabwe remains the continent’s largest producer of flue-cured tobacco, with its 2025 output reaching 355 million kilograms worth US$1.2 billion, according to Tobacco Reporter. For the 2025/26 farming season, the country had already registered about 82,000 growers by the end of October 2025, down from 126,000 during the previous season, according to the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board (TIMB).
Across the border in Malawi, another giant in tobacco production, was projected to produce 175 million kilograms in 2025, representing a 31% increase from the 133 million kilograms recorded the previous year.
The Dilemma of Tobacco-Dependent Economies
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Countries that rely heavily on tobacco as a major foreign currency earner and contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) often find it difficult to implement effective control measures and fair taxation policies. In some instances, novel nicotine products face even higher taxes than cigarettes as a deterrent and a strategy to shield the traditional tobacco sector from emerging competition.
Sahan Lungu, a Tobacco Harm Reduction practitioner from Malawi, said implementing effective tobacco control measures and taxes in Malawi would likely be an unpopular decision.
“In Malawi, tobacco is a significant contributor to the economy. It accounts for over 60% of national export earnings. This dependence makes it difficult to implement stringent tobacco control measures without risking economic instability. Many smallholder farmers in Malawi perceive tobacco farming as economically viable because it remains one of the most profitable crops we can grow here,” said Lungu.
He added that poor coordination among the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, and Health hinders the development of comprehensive Tobacco Harm Reduction strategies. According to Lungu, a collaborative approach would enable more balanced policies that account for health, agriculture, and trade considerations.
“In Malawi, it is estimated that over 5,000 people die each year from tobacco-related illnesses, and we still have close to a million daily tobacco users,” he said.
Malawi currently applies a 1% withholding tax on small-scale farmers’ sales to ease their financial burden, replacing previously higher rates. This approach supports smallholder farmers while generating state revenue. However, concerns persist about corporate tax evasion among major producers, despite existing export levies on tobacco.
Joseph Magero, chairman of the Campaign for Safer Alternatives (CASA), told AllAfrica that the tobacco industry remains an especially sensitive sector for African economies.
“Tobacco provides income and employment for millions, especially in rural areas of countries like Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania, where few alternative cash crops exist. However, farmers often remain trapped in cycles of poverty due to low farm-gate prices, debt to leaf-buying companies, and fluctuating global demand. Governments also rely heavily on tobacco exports and tax revenues, making abrupt policy shifts economically risky,” said Magero.
He added that without viable alternatives or investment in crop diversification, transitioning away from tobacco could jeopardise livelihoods and destabilise economies already battling high unemployment and limited agricultural infrastructure.
Taxation: The Double-Edged Sword of Tobacco Control
In Zimbabwe, excise taxes on tobacco products are used to fund health initiatives and fiscal reforms, signaling efforts to align taxation policies with public health objectives. A notable example was the reversal of a proposed 10% tax on tobacco farmers in 2017 following industry backlash, highlighting the challenge of balancing fiscal needs with industry interests. Zimbabwe levies excise duty and surtax on manufactured tobacco products, including cigarettes, cigars, and cigarette tobacco.
Across the continent, countries that are signatories to the World Health Organisation Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO-FCTC) have employed varying tax regimes to reduce tobacco use. Between 1994 and 2009, South Africa recorded a sharp increase in excise taxes alongside stronger tobacco control laws. According to a study published on the Tobacco Control BMJ platform, this led to a major decline in smoking rates and significant revenue gains.
Since then, South Africa has continued to raise tobacco taxes, with the government increasing excise duties above inflation levels. In the 2025 national budget, tobacco excise duties rose by 4.75%. As of the 2024/2025 financial year, the tax stands at approximately R21.77 per pack of 20 cigarettes.
Despite these efforts, smoking rates and deaths from tobacco-related diseases remain high. Data from the Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction show that 20.3% of South African adults aged 15 and older smoked regularly in 2022, compared with 20.2% in 2020 and 20.7% in 2019. The country also recorded about 32,400 tobacco-related deaths, accounting for roughly 10% of total annual deaths.
This raises a critical question: why do high smoking rates and tobacco-related deaths persist in South Africa and other low- and middle-income countries despite heavy taxation and restrictive policies? Where do the smokers get their cigarettes?
Dr Mercy Korir, a Medical Doctor from Kenya, told this publication that over-taxation could work against intended public health outcomes.
“Over-taxation often fuels smuggling and counterfeit markets, especially where enforcement is weak, undermining both health goals and government revenue. These are common challenges across African borders. In Kenya, for example, we see people underage able to access some of these products online because the legislative framework isn’t clear, leaving room for the grey and black markets to thrive,” said Dr Korir.
The Rise of the Illicit Tobacco Market in Africa
The illicit tobacco industry has grown into a multibillion-dollar enterprise. Estimates from The Tobacco Atlas and Philip Morris International (PMI) put the global illicit tobacco market at between US$40 billion and US$50 billion annually, representing 11–15% of the worldwide market. Evidence shows that where taxes and regulatory restrictions are particularly heavy, the illicit market tends to expand rapidly.
In South Africa, the illicit tobacco trade was estimated to cost the economy around ZAR20 billion in 2023. The South Africa Tobacco Transformation Alliance reports that approximately 37 billion cigarettes are smoked in the country annually, with a large share believed to be illicit.
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Francois van der Merwe, spokesperson for the South Africa Tobacco Transformation Alliance, recently described the situation as a “national disaster.”
“The issue of illicit tobacco trade has to be addressed at the highest level in our country, and a decision must be made by Cabinet. When 70% of a major sector like tobacco is illicit, it signals a serious crisis,” he said.
Meanwhile, the South African Parliament is currently debating the Tobacco Products and Electronic Delivery Systems Bill, which seeks to tighten regulations around both traditional and emerging nicotine products.
Magero however noted that while taxation is a widely adopted tool to discourage smoking, excessive taxes often drive consumers into the black market.
“Over-taxation on legal tobacco or nicotine products often pushes prices beyond what many consumers can afford, creating strong incentives for illicit markets to fill the gap with cheaper, unregulated alternatives,” said Magero.
He warned that when consumers turn to the black market, governments lose revenue, oversight vanishes, and people are exposed to unregulated products with no safety standards or quality controls.
“This shift undermines public health goals, fuels criminal networks, and makes it harder for authorities to track consumption trends or enforce age restrictions,” he added.
In Kenya, the government has proposed the Tobacco Control Amendment Bill, which seeks to amend the Tobacco Control Act (Cap. 245A of 2007) to regulate both traditional tobacco products and newer nicotine-delivery systems such as e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches.
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