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Africa: How Will Africa Adapt to a Disappearing 'West'?

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As Trump drives a wedge between US-Europe relations, Africa should cleave closer to reliable friends and safeguard multilateralism.
The widening divergence between Europe and the United States (US) under President Donald Trump appears to be rendering the notion of the collective ‘West’ obsolete. That could have important implications for Africa. Although the continent has been diversifying its global partnerships, it might now face difficult choices.
Trump’s decision to negotiate directly (and only) with Russia for a Ukraine peace deal, and the insults directed at Europeans by US Vice-President JD Vance at this week’s Munich Security Conference, have created tensions. Together, they seriously question the continued relevance of the transatlantic partnership.
Vance urged European leaders to drop the ‘firewalls’ they have erected to keep far-right parties out of government. These are parties, especially Germany’s Alternative for Germany, with which the Trump administration shares many values. These include hostility to immigration, aggressive nationalism and enthusiasm for unfettered freedom of expression, even when this crosses over into hate speech.
‘The threat that I worry most about, vis-a-vis Europe, is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor,’ Vance said. ‘What I worry about is the threat from within: the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values – values shared with the United States of America.’
Vance’s jab that the real threat to Western values came from European governments themselves denying freedom, and not Russia, infuriated those governments who rejected the insinuation that they were authoritarian.
Trump has since underscored the point by launching negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, which exclude both Ukraine and Europe. And by saying Ukraine was responsible for starting the war and branding its President Volodymyr Zelensky a ‘dictator.’
Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also shocked Europe by warning them not to assume the US would defend them ‘forever.’
The divide opening up across the Atlantic has implications for Africa, according to experts from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) who attended the Munich Security Conference. ISS Senior Researcher Priyal Singh saw ‘a breakdown in the transatlantic partnership,’ believing the traditional assumption that there was a unified collective ‘West’ ‘doesn’t hold true anymore.’
This meant Africa would have divergent relations with the US and Europe in future. Singh said Africa’s relations with Europe would probably stay on the same path – of good governance, human rights and so on – but its relationship with the US would likely go down a very different path. There would be an about-turn in language because of Trump’s antagonism to diversity, equity and inclusion.
He thought it significant that after the Trump administration’s flurry of attacks on South Africa, the Europeans had expressed strong solidarity with South Africa. Singh added that after Vance told Europe it would henceforth have to take care of its own security, this raised questions about the US approach to security in Africa.
Already there are question marks over US funding for peacekeeping. Some US funds for the United Nations (UN) operation in Haiti have been frozen. And although the US had reservations about the mechanics of UN funding for African peace missions under former president Joe Biden, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch’s remarks on 11 February suggest a general hardening of the US’ position.
Risch said that ‘UN Security Council Resolution 2719 should not be used to fund AUSSOM. Doing so would lock the US into perpetual funding through its dues to the UN which is a disservice to the American taxpayer.’
It’s unclear whether Europe could fill the security gap left in Africa by the US, as it would have to increase defence spending on Ukraine to compensate for an expected drop in US military support, Singh said.
Though perhaps others, like Türkiye, United Arab Emirates and China, could step in – even if each also comes with its own agenda.
Jakkie Cilliers, head of ISS’ African Futures programme, said the past week’s events were ‘hopefully … a wake-up call for Europe’ to ‘get serious about taking responsibility for your own security.’
Cilliers said the US and Europe’s diverging paths would impact Africa mainly through Trump’s decision to slash foreign aid and the inability of Europe to bridge that gap. That would lead to quite a dramatic increase in poverty, which he forecast would result from an expected 20% to 30% cut in US aid for fighting HIV/AIDS and, more generally, for development.
As a result, the US’ image as a reliable partner would give way to a sense that it is ‘fickle and unpredictable,’ and so the US would lose considerable soft power.
On US security cooperation with Africa, however, Cilliers noted that Hegseth last week visited US Africa Command (AFRICOM) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany and reportedly said AFRICOM’s role remained vital to US interests. Cilliers said this was because Africa was on the front lines of an attack by Islamists against Christian populations.
Hegseth cited the 1 February airstrikes against militants in Somalia that AFRICOM coordinated with the Federal Government of Somalia. He also said Africa remained a priority because of China’s ‘pernicious’ intentions on the continent.
Yet China may ironically increase its role on the world stage, including Africa, precisely because of Trump’s wider retreat.
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Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, ISS Head of Special Projects, noted that after Vance left the Munich conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took the stage and emphasised many of the things Vance hadn’t mentioned. These included multilateralism, collaborating for development and building stronger partnerships.
‘It was a message that resonated with many people, which was ironic because traditionally China has been the outsider in these discussions. Yet in this case … his was the one that got the standing ovation that JD Vance’s didn’t get.’
She thought the juxtaposition of Vance’s hostile speech and Yi ‘basically reaffirming a global order based on mutually agreed rules’ sent the message – also to Africa – that ‘if the US doesn’t want to be a world leader … we’re happy to do that by pushing a development agenda.’ Maunganidze said China’s approach of security via development would have especially appealed to Africa.
In a month, Trump has turned the world as we have known it on its head with uncertain implications for everyone, including Africa. In uncertain times, it seems wise for the continent to cleave closer to more reliable friends, like Europe, and hold fast to multilateralism.
But if Trump has sounded a wake-up call to Europe, he has also sounded a warning to Africa – for both to achieve the self-reliance they have long aspired to.
Peter Fabricius, Consultant, ISS Pretoria
Read the original article on ISS.
AllAfrica publishes around 500 reports a day from more than 110 news organizations and over 500 other institutions and individuals, representing a diversity of positions on every topic. We publish news and views ranging from vigorous opponents of governments to government publications and spokespersons. Publishers named above each report are responsible for their own content, which AllAfrica does not have the legal right to edit or correct.
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Africa: Risks Persist, Especially for Africa, With U.S. Tariff Pause, Says WTO Chief Okonjo-Iweala

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Geneva — The head of the World Trade Organization says a temporary tariff pause by the United States mitigates current trade contraction, but substantial downside risks persist, which can heavily impact Africa.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala released the Global Trade Outlook at the WTO on April 16, warning of global dangers with the U.S. and China “decoupling” their economies.
She said at a press conference that the world’s merchandise trade volume will likely fall by 0.2 percent in 2025 under current conditions.
North America’s decline is expected to be particularly steep, and its exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6 percent, while Ngozi noted that some of Africa’s poorest countries, such as Lesotho, will be hard hit.
“A decoupling between the two major economies (the U.S. and China) could have far-reaching consequences if it were to contribute to a broader fragmentation of the global economy along geopolitical lines into two isolated blocks,” said Ngozi.
She said imposing “reciprocal” tariffs could lead to broader policy uncertainty, and these could trigger a sharper decline of 1.5 percent in global goods trade and hurt export-oriented least-developed countries (LDCs).
‘This is because Africa’s trade with the U.S. is relatively small’
“Exempting LDCs from all tariff increases would raise their exports, support their growth, and, in essence, help to create new markets,” said Ngozi.
She said that Africa’s economic outlook is broadly stable under current trade policies, with real GDP growth for the continent essentially unchanged, even if reciprocal tariffs are reinstated.
“This is because Africa’s trade with the U.S. is relatively small. The share of Africa’s exports to the U.S., as a percentage of its total exports to the world, is about 6.5 percent.”
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Ngozi said the share of Africa’s imports from the U.S. of its total imports is around 4.4 percent, with differences across countries.
“Some countries, like Lesotho, are particularly vulnerable due to their high reliance on textile exports to the U.S. market,” she observed.
Such exports are about $240 million or 10 percent of Lesotho’s. GDP,
“Cote d’Ivoire is another example. The largest cocoa producer in the world has about $800 million in exports to the U.S.,” said Ngozi.
Vulnerable to smuggling
U.S. tariffs can make Cote d’Ivoire’s cocoa vulnerable to smuggling to neighbouring Ghana, an “unintended consequence.”
“By 2050, 25 percent of the world’s population will be in Africa, whilst the present trade situation is being sorted out,” Ngozi said.
The Nigeria-born WTO chief pleaded for possible tariff exemptions for most of Africa since this is where most least developed countries are found.
Africa has 32 of the 44 least developed countries (LDCs), and Ngozi said that the continent needs “more self-reliance.”
“The external environment has changed and is more adverse. Aid is drying up, and trade is becoming more politicized,” said the WTO chief.
“So there needs to be a focus on raising domestic resources, attracting domestic regional and foreign investments on faster and greater trade integration within the continent, such that intra-Africa trade is lifted well beyond the current 16 percent,” said Ngozi.
She noted that Africa imports an estimated $7 billion of textiles, and Lesotho’s $240 million could be absorbed within Africa.
AllAfrica publishes around 500 reports a day from more than 110 news organizations and over 500 other institutions and individuals, representing a diversity of positions on every topic. We publish news and views ranging from vigorous opponents of governments to government publications and spokespersons. Publishers named above each report are responsible for their own content, which AllAfrica does not have the legal right to edit or correct.
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Mongolia to deepen ties with Zambia

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By Mark Ziligone

Mongolian President UKHNAAGIIN KHURELSUKH has reaffirmed his country’s commitment to strengthening bilateral relations with Zambia.

President KHURELSUKH says his country will remain committed to international cooperation particularly through platforms such as the United Nations and other global organizations.

He has highlighted key areas for potential collaboration, including mining, agriculture, and tourism sectors adding that they are critical to the development agendas of both countries.

President KHURELSUKH was speaking when Zambia’s ambassador to Mongolia IVAN ZYUULU presented letters of credence to him at State House in Ulaanbaatar.

The Mongolian President welcomed the Ambassador and expressed confidence that the new envoy will help deepen the diplomatic and economic ties between Zambia and Mongolia.

And Mr. ZYUULU praised Mongolia’s expertise in mineral exploration and sustainable agriculture, expressing Zambia’s interest in drawing lessons and forming partnerships for mutual benefit.

Meanwhile Mongolia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, BATMUNKH BATTSETSEG reaffirmed his country’s readiness to work closely with Zambia and to explore new avenues of cooperation.

This is contained in a statement issued to ZNBC News by Second Secretary for Communications at the Zambian Embassy in Beijing, China CATHERINE KASHOTI.

The post Mongolia to deepen ties with Zambia appeared first on ZNBC-Just for you.

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Africa: Trump Wants World to Subsidise US Empire

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Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia — Donald Trump’s top economic advisor claims the President has weaponised tariffs to ‘persuade’ other nations to pay the US to maintain its supposedly mutually beneficial global empire.
Geopolitical economist Ben Norton was among the first to highlight the significance of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers chairman Stephen Miran‘s briefing at the Hudson Institute.
The Institute is funded by financiers such as media czar Rupert Murdoch, who controls Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and other conservative media.
Miran made his case just after Trump’s electoral victory in A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System. Miran attempts to rationalise Trump’s economic policies, which are widely seen as at odds with conventional wisdom and reason.
Enhancing US dominance
Miran defends Trump’s tariffs as part of an ambitious economic strategy to strengthen US interests internationally with a “generational change in the international trade and financial systems”.
“Our military and financial dominance cannot be taken for granted, and the Trump administration is determined to preserve them”. Miran claims the US provides two major ‘global public goods’, both “costly to us to provide”.
First, Miran claims US military spending provides the world a ‘security umbrella’ that others should also pay for. Second, the US issues the dollar and Treasury bonds, the main reserve assets for the liquidity of the international monetary and financial system.
Miran seems blissfully unaware of longstanding complaints of US ‘exorbitant privilege’. The dollar’s reserve currency status has provided seigniorage income to the US while Treasury bond sales have long financed US debt at very low cost.
Miran’s case for Trump
The White House has threatened others with high tariffs unless they make concessions, at their own expense, benefiting the US. Miran’s defence of tariffs is indirect, as part of an ostensible grand strategy.
“The President has been clear that the United States is committed to remaining the reserve [currency] provider”, Miran added. He claims US dollar hegemony is “great” and denies “dollar dominance is a problem”.
While this “has some side effects, which can be problematic”, Miran “would like to … ameliorate the side effects, so that dollar dominance can continue for decades, in perpetuity”.
For Miran, these side effects are supposedly largely adverse while ignoring the benefits to the US. Chronic US trade deficits have been possible and financed by mounting US debt, enabling the dollar to serve as a global reserve currency.
Hence, US trade deficits have been sustained since the 1960s, rather than “unsustainable”, as he alleges. US manufacturing has been “decimated” by its consumers and transnational corporations, not by an extensive foreign conspiracy.
Miran’s Guide acknowledged the ‘Triffin dilemma’. In 1960, Robert Triffin warned that the dollar’s status as global reserve currency posed problems and risks for US monetary policy.
He invokes Triffin to argue that the US must import more than it exports to provide liquidity to the world, which needs dollars for international trade and to hold as reserves.
Miran adopts the Trumpian narrative of only blaming others. However, the US expected to benefit from continuing trade surpluses at Bretton Woods. In 1944, it opposed alternative payments arrangements to deter excessive trade surpluses.
US trade deficits have grown since the 1960s with post-World War II reconstruction of the Global North and uneven ‘late industrialisation’ in the Global South.
The empire must pay
The Trump administration wants to eat its cake and still have it. It intends to strengthen US empire while minimising adverse side effects and costs.
Miran wants foreign nations to “pay their fair share” in five ways. First, “countries should accept tariffs on their exports to the US without retaliation”. Tariffs provide revenue, which has financed its global public goods provision. Second, they should buy “more US-made goods”.
Third, they should “boost defense spending and procurement from the US”. Fourth, they should “invest in and install factories in America”. Fifth, they should “simply … help us finance global public goods”, i.e., foreign aid should go to or via the US.
Miran then emphasises that Trump “will no longer stand for other nations free-riding”, and calls for “improved burden-sharing at the global level”.
“If other nations want to benefit from the US geopolitical and financial umbrella, then they need to … pay their fair share”, i.e., the world must “bear the costs” of maintaining US empire.
Trump dilemmas 2.0
Trump wants to use tariffs to force countries with trade surpluses with the US to buy more from the US. Ending these deficits would undermine dollar hegemony, which, paradoxically, Trump obsessively wants to preserve.
Miran wants other countries to convert their US Treasury bills into 100-year bonds at very low interest rates, effectively subsidising the US over the long term. He also wants nations running trade surpluses with the US to buy more long-term US Treasury securities.
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Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS members and all countries promoting de-dollarisation or undermining dollar hegemony in the international monetary system.
During his first term, Trump wanted to do the near-impossible by boosting exports while preserving a strong dollar!
Miran acknowledges that the “root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents international trade balancing”. But he also insists that dollar “overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets”.
Trump now hopes to kill both US trade and fiscal deficit birds by cutting imports and raising revenue with higher tariffs. He also wants the world to continue using dollars despite the US budget and trade deficits and policy uncertainties.
Meanwhile, official US debt, financed by selling Treasury bonds, continues to grow. Trump has to deliver his promised tax cuts soon before his earlier measures run out. Trump is falling foul of his bluster and may have to revert to the status quo ante while denying it.
Despite Miran’s best efforts, he cannot provide a coherent rationale for Trump’s rhetoric. But dismissing Trump as ‘mad’ or ‘stupid’ obscures the impossible dilemma due to and obscured by post-war US dominance.
IPS UN Bureau
Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
Read the original article on IPS.
AllAfrica publishes around 500 reports a day from more than 110 news organizations and over 500 other institutions and individuals, representing a diversity of positions on every topic. We publish news and views ranging from vigorous opponents of governments to government publications and spokespersons. Publishers named above each report are responsible for their own content, which AllAfrica does not have the legal right to edit or correct.
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